Steve Jobs, connecting the dots looking backwards and the four types of chance
The ability of corporate executives to connect the dots looking backwards is nothing short of astonishing.
You see it time and again: everyone has a well-crafted, rational explanation for their successes. They’ll tell you about their grand strategy, how they meticulously planned each step, considering every angle.
In this 38 seconds clip, Steve Jobs shares some profound wisdom on this:
Businesspeople often would talk for hours about how they “strategized” their successes, how they “really thought deeply” of them and everything was clear from the start in their minds.
I recently posted on the 𝕏 platform about this.
It’s a subject I think about often, because this normalized behavior never made sense to me!
Anyone that worked in large companies long enough knows that is rare to meet people in the boardroom admitting that, hey, maybe they just got lucky.
It’s almost taboo, isn’t it?
Acknowledging that, sometimes, the stars just align, and things work out seems to be hard for many. I suspect underneath all of this there is a fear of appearing less competent.
Yet, the role of serendipity in business is as real as it gets.
I don’t want to dismiss hard work, strategy, planning, and foresight: these are all critical and essential features of business success. But so is being in the right place at the right time.
To improve our business outcomes, we need to start giving luck its due credit, acknowledging that it does play a role in our successes, at least as important as the one bad luck has when it influences our failures.
When doing this, we not only become more honest with ourselves but also open the door to understanding the true nature of randomness in business.
Luck, randomness, chance - or whatever we like to call it - is not something to be scared of. In fact, it is something that we should actively seek.
If we only look for predictability in our activities, it is very unlikely we will be able to achieve our original plans, because things happen in life: achieving full control of our environment is simply not possible.
A better approach would be that of internalizing the role of chance in our lives, and understanding how to use it in our favor.
Dr. James H. Austin, a neurologist and philosopher, authored “Chase, Chance, and Creativity”, a seminal work on the role of luck and serendipity.
Austin defines chance as “unpredictable, fortuitous events without deliberate human intent”.
He argues that while chance appears random and uncontrollable, it plays a vital role in creative processes.
The book details four types of chance:
Chance I: Pure blind luck, happening completely by accident, without any effort.
Chance II: Emerges from motion and activity. Austin emphasizes that a certain level of action can stir up opportunities, allowing random elements to combine into new, meaningful forms.
Chance III: Represents blind luck that requires a specific, prepared mind to recognize and utilize it. This type of chance is about discernment and intuition, exemplified by Louis Pasteur's famous quote: “Chance favors the prepared mind.”
Chance IV: Relates to individualized action, a subtle, personalized prompting of luck. It’s highly specific to an individual's unique actions and personality traits.
What can we do about it?
Dr. James Austin’s concepts about the different types of chance can be immensely insightful when applied to our business world, especially in areas like innovation, strategy, and personal development.
We can imagine leveraging his research across the whole spectrum of scenarios:
Embrace Chance I (Pure Luck): Recognize that some factors are beyond your control. This acceptance can give us a healthier business mindset, because can lead us to reduce stress and unrealistic expectations.
At the same time, this will also serve as a reminder to be open to unexpected opportunities and to capitalize on them when they arise.
Jump on that train when it stops by, without thinking for too long, because time kills deals…
Utilize Chance II (Motion-Induced Luck): Encourage active exploration and experimentation within your team. ‘Stirring the pot’ is actually a valuable exercise: this could mean trying new strategies, entering different markets, or innovating in product development.
By maintaining a high level of activity and exploration, you increase the likelihood of serendipitous discoveries and beneficial chance occurrences. Think about ways you can incorporate this strategy in your daily life: this works whether you are a senior member of the team or the latest joiner.
Cultivate Chance III (Prepared Mind Luck): Invest in continuous learning and knowledge acquisition for yourself and your team. The more informed and skilled you are, the better positioned you'll be to recognize and exploit opportunities that others might miss.
This could involve staying updated with industry trends, investing in training, or encouraging a culture of intellectual curiosity. For example - I read a lot, I listen to podcasts, I write this newsletter… Sure, a lot of the time I put into these activities doesn’t have an immediate return (maybe, there won’t ever be any return at all…) but if, one day, chance strikes - in whatever form which I can’t even imagine right now - I will be better prepared to take advantage of it.
Personalize Chance IV (Individualized Action Luck): Take action, or encourage your team members, to develop unique skills and hobbies. These individualized traits can lead to innovative solutions and unique approaches to solve challenges.
This type of luck favors those with distinct personal styles and a unique point of view, so fostering diversity in thinking and problem-solving within your team could be highly beneficial.
I follow this guy on the 𝕏 platform: he is a corporate director with a creative mind and a huge talent for drawing. What’s more personalized than this?!
Reflect and take action
In my 20 years working with various consulting firms and many, many corporate clients, I noticed how common such behavior is: overvaluing skill while undervaluing chance.
By acknowledging the influence of chance, we recognize that not all aspects of success are within our control. This realization can lead to a more humble and realistic approach to business strategy and personal career development.
Remember Steve Jobs’ words.
It’s only in hindsight that the seemingly random events and opportunities in our lives form a coherent narrative of success. What seems like a fortuitous break or an unexpected opportunity can later be seen as a pivotal moment in a larger story of achievement.
Embracing this viewpoint doesn’t diminish the value of hard work or the importance of strategic planning. Rather, it adds a layer of depth to our understanding of success, recognizing that the path to achieving our goals is non-linear and often peppered with twists from chance.